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TITLE  Iron Ore Prices May Rise 65% on China Demand, JPMorgan Says
WRITER   administrator DATE   2010-03-16 18:37:08
Iron Ore Prices May Rise 65% on China Demand, JPMorgan Says
Tue, 16 Mar 2010

Contract iron ore prices may rise 65 percent this year amid stronger-than-expected demand from steel mills in China, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The steelmakers may pay 159 cents a dry metric ton unit in the financial year beginning April 1, from 97 cents this year, JPMorgan analysts led by David George said in a March 12 report. That compares with their earlier forecast for a 20 percent gain.

Gains in contract prices will boost profits for Brazil¡¯s Vale SA, Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd., the world¡¯s three biggest iron-ore exporters, as demand increases following the easing of the global financial crisis. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc raised its 2010 earnings-per-share forecast for London-based Rio by 31 percent in a March 12 report after lifting its ore forecast last week.

¡°Chinese steel production has surprised post crisis and continues at a pace fast enough to drive up demand for steel raw materials, while the rest of the world is still in recovery mode,¡± JPMorgan¡¯s George said in the report. He lifted his EPS forecast for Rio by 31 percent for this year and BHP¡¯s by 20 percent for the 2011 fiscal year.

Rio gained 0.8 percent to A$76.60 and BHP declined 1.3 percent to A$33.75 at 10:41 a.m. Sydney time on the Australian stock exchange.

ING Groep NV last week increased its estimate to an 80 percent gain in iron ore prices, from a previous estimate of 40 percent. RBS analysts led by Tim Huff increased their forecast to a 60 percent gain.

Source : Bloomberg

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