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TITLE  China¡¯s ¡®Bubble¡¯ May Burst by 2011, Tiberius Says
WRITER   administrator DATE   2010-02-10 08:32:25
China¡¯s ¡®Bubble¡¯ May Burst by 2011, Tiberius Says
By Stuart Wallace and Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- China¡¯s ¡°bubble¡± may burst by 2011 following ¡°restrictive¡± measures by the nation¡¯s central bank, said Tiberius Asset Management AG, which manages about $1.8 billion in assets including commodities.

Chinese regulators, aiming to stem rising inflationary pressures, moved last month to slow a credit boom with measures to restrict lending.

¡°We expect the China bubble to pop by 2011, but no earlier than the end of 2010,¡± Zug, Switzerland-based Tiberius said in a monthly report distributed today. ¡°A prerequisite for such a development would be a series of restrictive interventions on the part of Bank of China.¡±

China¡¯s efforts to stem inflationary pressures came as the nation¡¯s economic growth accelerated to a 10.7 percent year-on- year pace in the last three months of 2009. Gross domestic product is forecast to climb another 9.5 percent this year. China is the world¡¯s largest consumer of all industrial metals and second to the U.S. in oil consumption.

¡°Initial central bank measures are still accompanied by a strong economy and a favorable market trend,¡± Tiberius said. ¡°On the other hand, the mood is less positive than at the start of the year.¡±

China¡¯s monetary policy ¡°paved the way¡± for weakness in industrial metals last month, Tiberius said. The LMEX index of six metals on the London Metal Exchange slumped 8.2 percent, the most since 2008, led by copper¡¯s 8.5 percent loss.

Resourced from Bloomberg
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