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TITLE  MEPS sees steel downturn to continue till 2009 end
WRITER   administrator DATE   2008-12-04 15:32:34
MEPS sees steel downturn to continue till 2009 end
December 04, 2008,

UK based steel consulting major MEPS said that world All Products Average transaction price dropped in November by over USD 140 per tonne as mills in all regions struggled to secure orders and that this was lower than the figure we predicted in October 2008.

MEPS said that ¡°Large declines in raw material costs pushed world average long product transaction prices downwards. Many customers stopped purchasing due to high inventories. Exports from East to West of steel products and manufactured goods continued to fall due to the ongoing economic crisis. Consequently, Asian mill order books contracted further. This led to increased output cuts, with crude steel production in China recording significant reductions in September and October. High priced inventories in the EU and US were sold off at very low values as distributors attempted to run stock levels down before the year end. This negatively affected the volume of new purchases for forward delivery. Consequently, offers from steel makers were reduced. Credit problems continued to cause difficulties across many end user sectors. The construction sector in most countries researched remains extremely weak.¡±

MEPS said that ¡°World transaction values are forecast to decline further in the short term as customers continue to put purchases on hold. Recent decreases in raw material costs are likely to push selling figures for all long categories lower next month. Continued stoppages in many manufacturing industries are likely to put additional downward pressure on flat products demand.¡±

It added that ¡°Most steel makers are continuing with output cuts over the next few months to meet lower consumption, particularly from the construction sector. This is predicted to lead to a re-balancing of supply and demand and should help to stabilize world prices in the first quarter. Prices are then forecast to move higher in the second trimester. Scrap costs are also likely to increase, which should have a positive influence on all long products prices. However, the world economic crisis could limit these advances. Banks are expected to control lending. As a result, purchasing by steel buyers will, almost certainly, continue to be restricted. We believe that prices are likely to drift downwards during the final few months of 2009.¡±

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